6. Unlike other waves of innovation this wave is
urgently needed to prevent further pollution, climate
change, species loss, and ecosystem decline. This
portfolio of courses seeks to show that whether
this next wave of innovation in sustainable development
occurs rapidly enough will depend significantly
on the choices, actions and leadership of engineers.
Hence it is vital that engineers are not just literate
and trained in how to achieve sustainable development
but also have the confidence to show real leadership
on this issue.
7. In the past, major breakthroughs
in innovation have occurred when there has been
a critical mass of enabling technologies that complement
each other, providing more efficient ways to meet
people’s needs. For example:
-
Laptop computers
– computers needed to become 80-90 percent
more efficient than the original models to enable
the system to run on batteries.[4]
-
Hybrid-electric
vehicles (such as the Toyota Prius[5]
and Honda Insight[6])
– combine highly efficient electric motors,
long-lasting batteries, light car body and fuel
switching technology, and are now making a successful
entry into the market.
-
Distributed
generation – the combination of a number
of technologies (such as new fuels, solar cells,
wind and current turbines, biofuels) coupled
with energy efficiency and demand side management
will ensure that ‘these developments
form not simply a list of separate items but
a web of developments that all reinforce each
other. Together, they will not only continue
the trend toward increasingly distributed energy
resources [large numbers of smaller energy
generation plants such as wind, solar, biogas],
but also can greatly accelerate the shift to
distributed utilities.’[7]
| |
Brief
Background Information |
The
following information provides a brief overview
of the related background material, from Chapter
1 of The Natural Advantage of Nations.
Waves
of Innovation
As described in detail in The Natural Advantage
of Nations, nations and firms are increasingly
aware of the importance of being ahead of the next
so-called ‘waves’ of innovation, both
for prosperity and maintaining economic growth (see
Figure 3.1). Many nations and firms have missed
these multi-billion dollar opportunities in the
past because they imagined the future to be an extension
of the present. Australia was the third country
in the world, after the US and the UK, to develop
an electronically programmable computer (CSIRAC,
in 1949). CSIRAC's co-inventor, Dr Trevor Pearcey,
went on to build a highly advanced transistorised
computer, CIRRUS, at the University of Adelaide,
in 1963. Both projects lapsed from lack of private
and government support, and Australia lost a clear
opportunity to join the world leaders in the ICT
wave of innovation. There is increasing awareness
that no country or major company can afford to miss
the next waves of innovation. Many people are asking
what exactly will be the next wave?
In order for a wave of innovation to occur there
needs to be a significant array of relatively new
and emerging technologies and a recognised genuine
need in the market that is leading to a market expansion.
As Natural Capitalism discussed, the first
industrial revolution began with the steam engine
and new machines to increase the labour productivity
of cotton spinning and the production of steel.
This was followed by further industrial shifts within
engineering that evolved out of advances in the
understanding of, for instance, electro-magnetism.
A focus on the mass production of the automobile
and electrification of cities ensued, a wave that
lasted until the 1940s. The rise of semiconductors
and electronics provided just some of the enabling
technologies that helped create new business opportunities
throughout the 1950s and 1960s. In the case of the
Information and Communications Technology (ICT)
wave of innovation, it is easy to identify the technologies
that were driving the growth of capacity in the
industry. Innovations in computer processing power,
network bandwidth and data storage have all helped
achieve the predictions of Gordon Moore in the 1970s
that ‘computing power will continue to double
every 18 months, while costs hold constant’.
This last wave of industrial activity was largely
based on semiconductors, fibre optics, networks
and software.
Figure
3.1: Waves of Innovation.
Source:
Hargroves, K. and Smith, M.H. (2005)[9]
Many
of the applications in the previous ICT wave of
innovation were based on the idea of reducing transaction
costs.[10]
In the book, Unleashing the Killer App,
Downes and Mui[11]
suggest that the market for the many internet applications
was in the reduction of transaction costs. For instance,
e-mail is a cheap and fast means of communication,
finding information in general is now much faster
and cheaper online, with internet booking, purchasing
and banking significantly reducing the costs of
customer transactions.
The ICT revolution is just one in a series of long
waves of industrial innovation first noted in the
1940s by Joseph Schumpeter, an Austrian-born economist.
In his work, Schumpeter tracked the rise and flow
of economies with respect to technology. If the
last wave of innovation, ICT, was driven by market
needs such as reducing transaction costs, we believe
there is significant evidence that the next waves
of innovation will be driven by the need to simultaneously
improve resource productivity while lightening our
environmental load on the planet.
Leo Jansen, Chairman of Dutch Inter-ministerial,
Sustainable Technology Development Programme stated
in 2000,[12]
In
setting a time-horizon of 50 years – two
generations into the future… it was found
that ten- to twenty-fold eco-efficiency improvements
will be needed to achieve meaningful reductions
in environmental stress. It was also found that
the benefits of incremental technological development
could not provide such improvements.
In order for a wave of innovation to occur there
needs to be a significant array of relatively new
and emerging technologies and a recognised genuine
need in the market that is leading to a market expansion.
There is now a critical mass of enabling eco-innovations
making integrated approaches to sustainable development
economically viable. This plus increased regulation
through for instance the ratification of the Kyoto
Protocol, the formation of the EU Emissions Trading
Scheme, and the EU Directives on waste and hazardous
substances, suggest that the next wave of innovation
will be in sustainable development. As reported
in Small is Profitable, voted as one of
the three best books by the Economist magazine for
2002, ‘These developments form not simply
a list of separate items, but a web of developments
that all reinforce each other. Their effect is thus
both individually important and collectively profound.’
Figure
3.2. Critical Mass
of Innovations meeting real market needs creates
new Waves of Innovation.
Source: Hargroves, K. and
Smith, M.H. (2005)[13])
This course and the textbook show that a range of
institutional and regulatory barriers together with
short term pressures on governments, business and
communities has led to many resource productivity
gains being unrealised. This genuinely has created
a significant source of potential productivity improvements
for companies, governments and society if they are
willing to address the barriers to more resource
productive approaches being taken up in the marketplace.
This course will also show that we now possess both
the technological innovations and design know-how
to tackle many environmental problems cost effectively
and, in some areas, very profitably. Specifically,
this involves everything from green buildings, hybrid
cars, wind power, resource processing, transport
systems, metals/plastic recycling and other enabling
technologies. However, still more innovations are
emerging from the fields of materials science, ranging
from re-examining old systems with Whole System
Design (WSD) approaches, to green chemistry using
biomimicry principles based on nature, which is
part of the nanotech wave of innovation. All of
these will help achieve sustainable development.
The examples that will be featured throughout this
short course provide proof, and add weight to, what
many have already sensed. Namely, that the problems
are serious but there are exciting pioneering efforts
and solutions being developed around the world through
many industry sectors.[14]
Not only do we now have solutions to many problems,
but we are also gaining insight as to which solutions
are the most cost-effective and profitable. Hence,
nations and companies that work together to address
sustainable development can position themselves
to be at the forefront of the next waves of innovation.
Finally, as we pointed out in the ‘Setting
the Scene’ notes at the start of this Unit,
The Natural Advantage of Nations argues
that such a new wave of innovation will significantly
assist economic growth in line with the recent work
of Professor Paul Romer. Stanford University Professor
of Economics, Paul Romer, is seen as one of the
founders of the field of ’New Growth Economics’,
and writes,[15]
We
now know that the classical economic suggestion
that we can grow rich by accumulating more and
more pieces of physical capital is simply wrong…
Economic growth occurs whenever people take resources
and rearrange them in ways that are more valuable.
A useful metaphor for production in an economy
comes from the kitchen. To create valuable products,
we mix inexpensive ingredients together according
to a recipe. The cooking one can do is only limited
by the supply of ingredients, and most cooking
in the economy produces undesirable side effects.
If economic growth could be achieved only by doing
more and more of the same kind of cooking, we
would run out of raw materials and suffer from
unacceptable levels of pollution and nuisance.
Human history teaches us however that economic
growth springs from better recipes, not just from
more cooking. New recipes generally produce fewer
unpleasant side effects and generate more economic
value per unit of raw material. Every generation
has perceived the limits to growth that finite
resources and undesirable side effects would pose
if no new recipes or ideas were discovered. And
every generation has underestimated the potential
for finding new recipes and ideas. We constantly
fail to grasp how many ideas remain to be discovered.
- Brownell, B. (ed) (2006) Transmaterial: A
catalogue of materials, products and processes that
are redefining our physical environment, Princeton
Architectural Press, NY. Available online at www.transstudio.com.
Accessed 7 June 2006.
- Downes, L. and Mui, C. (1998) Unleashing the
Killer App, Harvard Business School Press,
New York.
- Hawken, P., Lovins, A.B. and Lovins, H. (1999)
Natural Capitalism, Creating the Next Industrial
Revolution, Earthscan, London, Chapter 1: The
Next Industrial Revolution. Downloadable from http://www.natcap.org/images/other/NCchapter1.pdf.
Accessed 3 January 2007.
- Lovins, A.B., Datta, E.K., Feiler, T., Rabago,
K.R., Swisher, J.N., Lehmann, A. and Wicker, K.
(2002) Small is Profitable: the hidden economic
benefits of making electrical resources the right
size, Rocky Mountain Institute, Snowmass, Colorado.
- von Weizsacker, E., Lovins, A. and Lovins, L.
H. (1997) Factor 4: Doubling Wealth –
Halving Resource Use, Earthscan, London, Introduction:
More for Less.
- Weaver, P., Jansen, L., van Grootveld, G., van
Spiegel, E. and Vergragt, P. (2000) Sustainable
Technology Development, Greenleaf Publishing,
Sheffield, UK.
-
Natural
Capitalism
- Rocky
Mountains Institute
- WorldWatch
Institute Organisation
- Natural
Capitalism Inc
[1]
Lovins, A.B. et al (2002) Small is
Profitable: the hidden economic benefits of making
electrical resources the right size, Rocky
Mountain Institute, Snowmass, Colorado. (Back)
[2]
Hargroves, K. and Smith, M.H. (2005) The Natural
Advantage of Nations: Business Opportunities, Innovation
and Governance in the 21 st Century, Earthscan,
London, Chapter 1: Natural Advantage of Nations,
pp 17-18. (Back)
[3]
For a further summary see Hargroves, K. and Smith,
M.H. (2005) The Natural Advantage of Nations,
Earthscan, London, Chapter 1: Natural Advantage
of Nations, p 17. (Back)
[4]
Australian Greenhouse Office (n.d.) Greenhouse
Challenge Plus Fact Sheet #3. Available at
www.greenhouse.gov.au/challenge/publications/factsheets/fs3.html.
Accessed 7 June 2006. (Back)
[5]
Toyota Prius (n.d.) Toyota Australia: Prius
Homepage. Available at www.prius.toyota.com.au.
Accessed 7 June 2006. (Back)
[6]
Honda (n.d.) Honda Homepage. Available
at www.honda.com.
Accessed 7 June 2006. (Back)
[7]
Lovins, A.B. et al (2002) Small is
Profitable: the hidden economic benefits of making
electrical resources the right size, Rocky
Mountain Institute, Snowmass, Colorado. Available
at www.smallisprofitable.org.
Accessed 7 June 2006. (Back)
[8]
Hawkins, P., Lovins, A.B. and Lovins, L.H. (1999
) Natural Capitalism: creating the next industrial
revolution, Earthscan, London. (Back)
[9]
Hargroves, K. and Smith, M.H. (2005) The Natural
Advantage of Nations: Business Opportunities, Innovation
and Governance in the 21st Century, Earthscan,
London, Chapter 1: Natural Advantage of Nations,
p 17. (Back)
[10]
Transaction costs are the costs of undertaking transactions
between purchaser and seller, supplier and distributor.
(Back)
[11]
Downes, L. and Mui, C. (1998) Unleashing the
Killer App , Harvard Business School Press,
Boston. (Back)
[12]
Weaver, P. et al. (2000) Sustainable
Technology Development , Greenleaf Publishing,
Sheffield, UK, Foreword, p 7. (Back)
[13]
Hargroves, K. and Smith, M.H. (2005) The Natural
Advantage of Nations: Business Opportunities, Innovation
and Governance in the 21 st Century, Earthscan,
London, Chapter 1: Natural Advantage of Nations,
p 19. (Back)
[14]
United Nations Environment Program (2002) Industry
as a partner for sustainable development - 10 years
after Rio : the UNEP assessment , UNEP. This
UNEP report documents sector-specific progress in
implementing Agenda 21, building on the 22 industry-driven
sector reports of the 'Industry as a Partner for
Sustainable Development' series. (Back)
[15]
Romer, P. (1994) 'From Beyond Classical and Keynesian
Macroeconomic Policy', Policy Options, July-August.
(Back)