The Natural Advantage of Nations (Vol. I): Business Opportunities, Innovation and Governance in the 21st Century

...Energy is big business. The electricity industry is one of the highest investment sectors in the world. A quarter of the world’s development aid goes into building energy systems and every nation’s energy system imposes significant costs on government and ratepayers directly and indirectly. Since 1970, world commercial energy consumption has
grown at an average annual rate of 2.5 per cent. Interest in how we meet our energy needs is increasing for many reasons. All economies are becoming increasingly reliant on energy and we are reminded of this on days of extreme temperature when energy utilities around the world are stretched close to capacity. As we described in Section 1, if nations
had made good energy efficient buildings, homes and heating and cooling equipment a greater priority, the taxpayer would be much better off. This is because the entire system is presently designed to meet these peaks and then carries a redundancy during the predominant non-peak periods. Peak energy demand is often subsidized due to limitations of metering and political sensitivities: for example a recent study undertaken in Sydney, Australia, estimated the real cost of supplying summer peak electricity
demand at more than AU$3.80/kilowatt-hour, compared with a price of 12 cents. Greater energy efficiency would have avoided the need to build extra supply capacity and overall reduced costs to taxpayers...

...Current interest in alternatives to oil is influenced by the fact that nations are increasingly dependent on oil from politically unstable regions of the globe. Protecting these oil interests is becoming increasingly expensive. Many believe we are coming to the end of the oil age. In The Economist, Sheikh Zaki Yamani, a Saudi Arabian who served as his country’s oil minister three decades ago stated: ‘the Stone Age did not end for lack ofstone, and the oil age will end long before the world runs out of oil.’ The Economist goes on to write: ‘he made this prediction because he believes that something has fundamentally changed since the first oil shock. Finally technological advances offer a way for economies, especially those in the developed world to diversify their supplies of energy and reduce their demand for petroleum, thus loosening the grip of oil and the countries
that produce it. Hydrogen fuel cells, very high efficiency equipment and other ways of storing and distributing energy are no longer a distant dream but a foreseeable reality … and with the right policies it can be made both possible and economically advantageous.’...

...Rocky Mountain Institute, who have undertaken a great deal of work in this area writes: ‘The chairs of eight major oil and car companies have said the world is entering the oil endgame and the start of the Hydrogen Era. Royal Dutch/Shell’s planning scenarios in 2001 envisaged a radical, China-led leapfrog to hydrogen (already underway): hydrogen would fuel a fourth of the vehicle fleet in the industrialized countries by 2025, when world oil use, stagnant meanwhile, would start to fall. President Bush’s 2003 State of the Union message emphasized the commitment he’d announced
a year earlier to develop hydrogen-fuel-cell cars.’...

Related Papers from Adjunct Professor Alan Pears

Alan Pears originally trained as an engineer and educator. He was worked in the sustainable energy area since the late 1970s. During the 1980s, he worked for the Victorian government, implementing appliance energy labelling and dwelling insulation regulations, among many projects. Since 1991 he has been a consultant, and has been involved across the spectrum of energy efficiency issues, from designing energy efficient appliances and buildings (eg the Dishlex Global series dishwasher and EcoVend drink vending machine, and the 60L Green Building) to developing and implementing leading energy efficiency programs (including the Australian Building Greenhouse Rating Scheme for office buildings and the Energy Efficiency Best Practice Program for industry), as well as policy analysis and research for various governments and sustainable energy associations. Since 2001, Alan has taught part-time at RMIT University in the environment program, and has been recognised through his appointment as an Adjunct Professor. In 2000 he received an award for his lifetime contribution to sustainable energy from the Sustainable Energy Industry Association of Australia and, in 2003, he received a Centenary Medal for his contribution to climate change and environment policy.

Energy Efficiency - Its Potential: Some Perspectives and Experiences

Background paper for International Energy Agency Energy Efficiency Workshop, Paris April 2004. Much of the material in this paper may seem obvious to those experienced in the energy efficiency area. However, it seemed worthwhile to prepare a summary of a number of the important issues, so that the workshop can progress to consider practical paths forward.

Potential for replacing Hazelwood with alternatives, particularly energy efficiency

Hazelwood power station is a brown coal fired plant consisting of eight 200 MW generators commissioned between 1964 and 1971. There are proposals to increase its output to 1730 MW. If utilised at 85% of full capacity, and allowing for 15% of output to be ‘lost’ through power station usage and transmission and distribution losses, this would mean that replacement by point of use demand side activity would involve avoiding or replacing approximately 10,000-11,000 GWh of electricity usage each year, around a quarter of Victoria’s existing electricity consumption. In practice, an effective strategy to replace Hazelwood would not focus on one option, but would involve a combination of strategies phased over a period of time.

Sustainability and Roads: Capturing the ESD Opportunity

Tenth Australasian Flexible Pavements Industry Conference on Health, Safety and Environment Melbourne July 21-22 2004 Abstract This paper considers the meaning of the term ‘sustainability’ as it applies to roads and pavement. It documents the sustainability problems to which past approaches to roads and transport infrastructure have contributed, and proposes that past approaches are clearly unsustainable in economic, social and environmental terms. It then proposes a number of opportunities for the pavement industry to contribute towards a more sustainable transport service future.

Innovation and Energy Efficiency (updated May 2005)
Most efforts to drive business innovation policy treat energy efficiency as a separate, and marginally relevant issue. Most energy efficiency programs do not focus on innovation, but analyse existing practices looking for marginal improvements. Both these approaches are inadequate. The reality is that energy efficiency involves people, systems, software, technology and organisations linked together in new ways. When energy efficiency is looked at in this light, it can be seen that many innovation activities that aim to increase yield, reduce wastage, optimise performance, reduce material content, and so on are also improving energy efficiency. The bulk of this paper comprises a review of the document Innovation Australia: backing Australia’s ability published by InvestAustralia and Austrade, to highlight areas where existing research and other activity is already or could potentially contribute to energy efficiency improvement.

Misconceptions about Energy Efficiency - Its Real Potenital
Background paper for International Energy Agency Energy Efficiency Workshop,
Paris, April 2004.
There are many misconceptions and confusions about the nature and potential of energy efficiency. And when it comes to delivering significant energy savings, there is still a lot to be learned about successful identification and capture of savings. Despite these challenges, aggressive pursuit of energy efficiency offers an exciting opportunity to reduce total energy costs and greenhouse gas emissions while improving quality of life and business productivity. But when many policy advisers cannot grasp the potential, when economic models include systematic biases against energy efficiency, and when powerful vested interest groups work hard to convince politicians and policy specialists that energy efficiency opportunities either do not exist or are very limited, it is very difficult to make progress.

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Introduction to cost effective greenhouse solutions

Adjunct Professor Alan Pears writes. "(Greenhouse Gas) Emission reduction sounds like a daunting prospect, and many people imagine that we will have to freeze in the dark, shut down industry, and face misery. But remember, we don't have to slash greenhouse gas emissions in a couple of years - we are expected to phase in savings over decades. This allows us to take advantage of the fact that most energy producing or using equipment, from fridges and computers to cars and power stations has to be replaced every 5 to 30 years. So we can minimise costs by making sure that, when old equipment is replaced, low greenhouse-impact alternatives are installed. For example, by 2020, most of Australia 's dirty coal-fired power stations will be more than 30 years old - and they will have to be re-built or replaced: renewable energy, cogeneration and high efficiency energy supply technologies (such as fuel cells) could replace them. Similarly, most household appliances are replaced every 15 years: in 2005, you will be able to choose a super-efficient fridge that generates a third as much greenhouse gas as today's 5 star fridge."

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Climate: Making Sense and Making Money

Infact approached wisely preventing climate change can be extremely profitable if governments work with their business sectors and civil society to ensure that when old equipment is replaced, it is replaced with low greenhouse-impact alternatives. But to do this governments need to address as many as 80 regulatory, institutional and market failures that prevent these options from being adopted. One of the best overviews of how any nation can wisely address these barriers is Amory and Hunter Lovins' paper, Climate: Making Sense, Making Money. It clearly shows through inspiring case studies that businesses, governments and energy utilities around the world are addressing these key barriers for change with remarkably profitable results.

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This paper provided the basis of Chapter 12 of Natural Capitalism: he Next industrial Revolution. Download the entire chapter from either the RMI or Natural Capitalism Inc web sites.

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Small is Profitable: The Hidden Economic Benefits of Making Electrical Resources the Right Size.

Nations should address these barriers to creating more sustainable energy usage as the world is on the cusp of a major wave of innovation in the energy supply and demand sector. Small is profitable shows the context that connects. Developed by Rocky Mountain Institute, the book describes 207 ways in which the size of "electrical resources"-devices that make, save, or store electricity-affects their economic value. It finds that properly considering the economic benefits of "distributed" (decentralized) electrical resources typically raises their value by a large factor, often approximately tenfold, by improving system planning, utility construction and operation (especially of the grid), and service quality, and by avoiding societal costs. This book was voted #1 book for 2002 by the Economist Magazine.

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Cool Companies: Cutting Pollution and Saving Money with Clean, Efficient Energy Technology

"A new industrial revolution is helping American companies save energy and reduce pollution using clean, efficient technologies, and even on-site production of energy. Nearly 100 case studies charted by the Center for Energy & Climate Solutions for the Cool Companies project demonstrate how one business after another is earning the equivalent of 40 to 50 percent returns on energy-saving investments. Savings bring not only lower costs, but also measurable, documented productivity gains through improved product quality and employee morale."

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Vulnerabilities in the Energy System

Benefits to National Security - Brittle Power (1982)
Centralized energy and water systems make them very vulnerable to terrorist attack. This was first pointed out in a large study as far back as 1982. In the 20 years since "Brittle Power" a Pentagon study was published, little has changed, and little of that change is for the better. Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) writes, "Federal energy policy continues to promote the most centralized, unforgiving, and vulnerable sources and infrastructures, while ignoring or suppressing the more efficient, diverse, dispersed, localized, and renewable options that could in time make major supply failures impossible by design."
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Threat of Climate Change

The Science of Global Climate Change
Recognising the problem of potential global climate change the World Meteorological Organization and UNEP established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1988. The role of the IPCC is to assess the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant for the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change. The reports from the IPCC are used in global climate negotiations. Their findings have been corroborated by the USA National Academy of Sciences. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, has warned that the nations of the world will need to shift to a low-carbon future in order avoid dangerous changes to the global climate. According to the IPCC, stabilising concentrations at double pre-industrial levels will require deep cuts in annual global emissions, eventually by 60 percent or more.
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Climate Change - An Australian Guide to the Science and Potential Impacts

This guide provides and overview of the main facts and uncertainties regarding climate change, and helps provide Australians with policy-relevant material. It is in accord with the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC TAR) published in 2001. However, this guide is a significant update from the 3rd Assessment featuring the latest international scientific developments, and studies regarding the impacts of, and adaptation to climate change in Australia .

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Significantly the Australian Coal Association did not dispute the findings of Climate Change - Australian Guide to the Science and Potential Impacts report.

ABC 7:30 report transcript states,

"ABC Journalist MARK BANNERMAN: This is not simply an academic argument, though. If this report is accepted, it must surely increase pressure on the Government to reduce greenhouse gas emissions further. Significantly, the coal industry, when we spoke with them, would not dispute the forecasts in the report.

MARK O'NEILL, AUSTRALIAN COAL ASSOCIATION: Ah, no, look, that's a matter for the scientists and the modellers. We don't have the expertise in that area. I think it's up to industry to really take notice of what the scientists are saying and roll up our sleeves and get on with the job of developing solutions. And that's exactly what industry's doing and what it's gearing up to do even more in the future

MARK BANNERMAN: So where does this leave the Federal Government and will it increase the pressure for Australia to sign the Kyoto agreement? Well, Mark O'Neill from the coal industry says, and this might surprise some people, Kyoto , isn't good enough.

MARK O'NEILL: In the long run we'll need to do better than Kyoto. Ironically, Australia looks like being one of the very few countries that will meet its Kyoto targets.So, in that sense, I think, Australia will probably do quite well.But, clearly, beyond that, there is a need for more action and, of course, that will come with the availability of better technologies.

MARK BANNERMAN: It stands to reason when the coal companies say we need to better, the problem of climate change is real."

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The Human Cost of Climate Change: Environmental Refugees

"There is a new phenomenon in the global arena: environmental refugees. These are people who can no longer gain a secure livelihood in their homelands because of drought, soil erosion, desertification, deforestation and other environmental problems, together with the associated problems of population pressures and profound poverty."
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The Need for Deep Cuts in Greenhouse Emissions

"So it is clear Kyoto is not radical enough. But it is at the moment the most that is politically achievable. And even the Kyoto targets have proved controversial with some countries, notably America . Many see it as a threat to the pursuit of economic growth. I believe this needn't be the case. If we harness new technology the evidence is mounting that we can achieve a target of 60% - and at reasonable cost. A few months ago, I asked a team of experts from Imperial College here in London to produce a report saying how the world could reduce its emissions of greenhouse gases. I found the report fascinating - and startling. It said that by using known technologies or those very close to market, the world could reduce emissions by over 60%. This would not involve huge shifts in the economy, or enormous changes in lifestyles. It would allow developing countries to increase emissions, in the medium term, on a conventional development path. And it could be achieved gradually, over a period of years. Improving the efficiency with which we operate our energy processes also offers enormous savings - up to half our energy use could be saved by the use of known efficiency techniques."

Tony Blair, PM Great Britain, Speech on Sustainable Development 24/02/2003

Clean Energy Future for Australia study

Energy emissions crisis can be solved. Australia 's greenhouse gas pollution can be halved by 2040, using existing technology and without affecting economic growth, according to a groundbreaking study released today by the Clean Energy Future Group. The Clean Energy Future for Australia study found that a 50% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions from stationary energy is now achievable within 36 years. Significantly the study shows that it is possible to reduce emissions and have expansion of existing energy intensive industries such as aluminium and steel with also expanding coal exports from Australia. In addition their study provides an overview of all the other 13 existing studies in how to achieve deep cuts in greenhouse emissions from other countries around the world.

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Full ABC Earthbeat Interview with Clean Energy Future Group study co-author Hugh Saddler

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Deep Cut Strategies (for greenhouse gas emissions)

The first significant deep cuts to greenhouse emissions study for Australia was done by Hamilton, C,Turton, H,Saddler,H, Jinlong,M, "Long Term Greenhouse Gas Scenarios: A Pilot study of Australian can achieve deep cuts in emissions." 47, Discussion Paper #48, 2002. The Australia Institute.

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CSIRO's Greenhouse Solutions database

CSIRO provides an extensive account of how to cost effectively reduce Greenhouse emissions on their "Greenhouse Solutions" web site. CSIRO research is relevant to greenhouse issues in many ways, both direct and indirect. It ranges from climate science to emission measurement and projections, ways to reduce industrial emissions, save energy in production and use, or soak up carbon dioxide (CO2) on land and sea.
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Is a Climate Neutral Coal Fired Power Station possible?

Coal 21, an initiative of the Australian Coal Association to reduce the negative environmental impacts of generating electricity from coal has published a major study in 2004, "Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions Arising from the Use of Coal in Electricity Generation."

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ABC Earthbeat conducted an interview with Dr Peter Cook, the Chief Executive Officer of the CRC for Greenhouse Accounting, one of the key contributors to the Action Plan. View Transcript of Interview

Securing reliable energy supplies. Are we running out of oil?

Deputy Prime Minister of Australia , and leader of the Australian National Party, John Anderson recently on the ABC Insider's program stated,

"I do share the community's quite deep concern about the outlook (for oil prices) because it really is related to very heavy demand for fuel around the place, limitations of global refining capacity and, I have to say it, the very real prospect that at some stage in the next few short years global production may very well peak and it may be hard to increase it further at a time when countries like China, of course, are looking for a lot more fuel and even in places like Australia our dependence on oil, on petrol and transportation continues to increase.This is one of the reasons why I believe, in common with legislators in most other Western countries, that we need to be determinedly looking at alternative fuels, both extenders and new fuels and that includes biofuels. But I don't want to fudge and say that there is an easy answer to this. The realities of global fuel refining are quite stark."

View Transcript of the full interview

In May 2002, the first International Workshop on Oil Depletion was held at Uppsala University in Sweden by the Association for the Study of Peak Oil, (ASPO). Papers and presentations are available on the conference web site . Oil depletion experts from the US, Europe, Russia and the Middle East gathered to discuss the growing body of evidence that world oil production will reach a peak then decline relatively sharply within a decade or at most two. APSO also released the first edition of its "Statistical Review of World Oil and Gas", a nation-by-nation evaluation of reserves and production rates, based on the most reliable technical data available. Bruce Robinson was the sole representative at this conference from the Southern Hemisphere. In his background paper for the WA State Sustainability Strategy he provides a succinct overview of the issues.

Professor Michael Klare is a professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College and the author of "Resource Wars: The New Landscape of Global Conflict." Klare believes that we are seeing a significant shift in the primary causes of wars from the last century. Klare believes there is mounting evidence to suggest that resources, not ideology or trade barriers will be the major causes of war this century. He is also the author of 8 other books including "Rogue States and Nuclear Outlaws" and a member of the advisory committee of Foreign Policy In Focus.

Online Discussion with Professor Klare on the Washington Post Web site.

Alternative Fuels

To help nations become less dependant on oil from politically unstable regions of the globe most studies recommend a mixture of radical improvements in fuel efficiency, biofuels, and hydrogen. This includes greater expenditure and provision for multi-modal transport, encouragement of hybrid cars and trucks, and even redesigning our cities. How it is cost effectively possible shift to including hydrogen in the energy mix is probably one of the most poorly understood areas. Hence the following reports are recommended.

Hydrogen Economy

National Hydrogen Study - Australia  
Australia 's domestic oil resources run out within 20 years. What alternative fuels are available? One of these alternatives is Hydrogen. The study commissioned by the Australian Government assesses the role of hydrogen in the energy system and makes recommendations that would lay the foundations for Australia 's participation in a future hydrogen economy. It builds on the success of the conference, The Hydrogen Economy - Challenges and Strategies for Australia that was held in Broome, Western Australia, in May 2003.
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Rocky Mountain Institute's suggested Hydrogen Strategy

This paper illustrates how the careful coordination of fuel-cell commercialisation in stationary and transportation applications, the use of small-scale, distributed fuelling appliances, and Hypercar® vehicles combine to offer leapfrog opportunities for climate protection and the transition to hydrogen.

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20 Myths about Hydrogen

This paper by Amory Lovins, RMI documented white paper demystifies hydrogen energy, debunks popular misconceptions, and proposes a surprisingly easy, attractive, and profitable path to the hydrogen economy ( 23 June 2003 ).

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Re-Thinking Climate Change Policy

Assuming the Conclusion: An Introduction to the Economics of Climate Change Policy

Key Reference: An Introduction to the Economics of Climate Change Policy (2000). John P. Weyant, Stanford University. Professor John Weyant has identified 5 key areas where assumptions made by economists significantly effect the results of their modelling in this area.

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Climate: Making Sense and Making Money

One of the best overviews of how these assumptions can prevent some economists from seeing the insurmountably positive economic opportunities that addressing climate change brings is the paper, Climate: Making Sense, Making Money by Amory and Hunter Lovins. It clearly shows that there have been so many barriers to the uptake of the most energy efficient designs in industry, commercial building and residential sectors that win win opportunities abound.

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The fact that assumptions in economic modelling effect their outcomes was discussed in the Australian Senate in the "Heat Is On" review of climate change policy in Australia. The inquiry was conducted in 2000 with the report published in 2001.

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Key Reference: The Allen's Consulting Group, "Sustainable Energy Jobs Report" January 2003 Prepared for the Sustainable Energy Development Authority, NSW. Allen's Consulting modelling shows that with a wise policy mix including energy efficiency strategies, and sound demand management building a renewable energy sector can be net economic positive whilst creating rural jobs.

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Key Reference: The Allen's Consulting Group, "Sustainable Energy Jobs Report: Wind Manufacturing Case Study," January 2003 Prepared for the Sustainable Energy Development Authority.

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Allen's consulting were also advisors to a study by Energy Efficiency Strategies on 5 Star energy efficient homes vs. 4 star homes showed that 5 star homes were better for the economy.

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Assessment of Greenhouse Policy Options: Current Policy Mix, Emissions Intensity Requirement and Emissions Trading

This report compares the economic impacts of the current greenhouse policy mix, an emissions intensity requirement and an emissions trading system, focusing on the stationary energy sector. The report concludes that the current policy mix is sub-optimal, and that an emissions intensity requirement may provide a useful transitional greenhouse policy option in the short to medium term.

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Key Reference: The Allen's Consulting Group, "Greenhouse Emissions Trading Volume 1: Main Report", 2000. Report to the Department of Premier & Cabinet , Victoria , Australia .

Key Reference: The Allen's Consulting Group and McLennan Magasanik Associates (MMA). "Energy Market Reform and Greenhouse Gas Emission Reductions." Prepared for the Department of Industry, Science and Resources. 1999.

Policy Recommendations

The major reports featured thus far such as Climate Making Money, Making Sense, Small is Profitable, Brittle Power, the Allen's Consulting reports all have extensive policy recommendations.

Engineers Australia 's - Sustainability Taskforce Reports
Engineers Australia is Australia 's largest and most diverse engineering association helping its 70,000 members achieve their personal and professional goals. The Policy Unit produces publications on a wide range of issues including; "Towards a Sustainable Energy Future": Setting the Directions and Framework for Change. August 2001.

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The Business Case for Ratifying the Kyoto Protocol

"Environment Business Australia (EBA) is the peak environment industry body in Australia that acts on behalf of its members and the broader environment and sustainability industry (comprised of 5,600 businesses employing some 146,000 people and with a turnover of approximately $16.7 billion1). In July 2002 EBA released a discussion paper titled "The Business Case for Ratification of the Kyoto Protocol". Since July EBA has consulted extensively with industry and governments in Australia and overseas. This paper finalises the conclusions drawn from our consultation and also draws on studies provided by the Business Council for Sustainable Energy; Origin Energy; and the Renewable and Sustainable Energy Roundtable. EBA's recommendations are based on their firm belief that it is in Australia 's best interests to pursue new opportunities to build the next generation of core industries, and to help traditional industries maintain competitiveness in a global marketplace that is increasingly ascribing sustainability principles to development and trade."

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Australian Conservation Foundation Climate Change Campaign

Australian Conservation Foundation is Australia 's largest membership NGO with over 60,000 members. Its Climate Change Campaign provides detailed policy recommendations for Australia that are of relevance to most OECD countries.

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Further Reading

Rocky Mountain Institute have a comprehensive web site devoted to many key topics including Energy

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References From the Book

1 The Economist (2003) ‘The End of the Oil Age’, 25–31 October.

2 Lovins, A. (2004) ‘Energy Efficiency, Taxonomic Overview for Earth’s Energy Balance’, in Cleveland, C. J. (ed) Encyclopedia of Energy, Volume 1, Elsevier.

3 Ibid.

4 Lovins, A. and Lovins, L. H. (1982) Brittle Power, Brick House; Lovins, A. and Lovins, L. H. (1983) ‘The Fragility of Domestic Energy’, The Atlantic Monthly, November, pp118–126.

5 Lovins, A., Datta, K., Feiler, T., Rábago, K., Swisher, J., Lehmann, A. and Wicker, K. (2002) Small Is Profitable: The Hidden Economic Benefits of Making Electrical Resources the Right Size, Rocky Mountain Institute Publications, Colorado.

6 Grove, A. (1999) Only the Paranoid Survive: How to Exploit the Crisis Points that Challenge Every Company and Career, Bantam Books, New York.

7 Maddox, Sir J. (1999) What Remains to be Discovered? Papermac, London, p362.

8 AGO (2003) Climate Change An Australian Guide to the Science and Potential Impacts, AGO, Canberra.

9 UNEP Finance Initiatives CEO Briefing, 2002 states: ‘Worldwide economic losses due to natural disasters appear to be doubling every ten years and, if current trends continue, annual losses will come close to US$150 billion in the next decade’.

10 Myers, N. (1993) ‘Environmental Refugees in a Globally Warmed World’, BioScience, vol 43, no 11, December, p758; Myers, N. (1996b) The Ultimate Security: The Environmental Basis of Political Stability, Island Press, Washington, DC.

11 Myers, N. (2001) ‘Environmental Refugees: a Growing Phenomenon of the 21st Century’, Philosophical Transactions, Biological Sciences, vol 357, no 1420, pp609–613.

12 Figure estimated from Brown, L. (2001) Eco-Economy: Building an Economy for the Earth, Earth Policy Institute, WW Norton, New York/Earthscan, London, Ch 2, pp9–10.

13 Simpson, V. (2003) Climate Change and the Pacific, Australian Conservation Foundation.

14 Price, T. (2002) The Canary is Drowning: Tiny Tuvalu Fights Back Against Climate Change, Tom Price CorpWatch, New York.

15 Kaufmann, R. and Stern, D. (2002) ‘Evidence for Human Influence on Climate from Hemisphere Temperature Relations’, Nature, 3 July.

16 O’Neill, B. and Oppenheimer, M. (2002) ‘Dangerous Climate Impacts and the Kyoto Protocol’, Science 296, pp1971–2.

17 Cox, P., Betts, R., Jones, C., Spall, S. and Totterdell, I. (2000) ‘Acceleration of Global Warming Due to Carbon-Cycle Feedbacks in a Coupled Climate Model’, Nature, 408, pp184–187.

18 Bacon, S. (1999) ‘Decadal Variability in the Outflow from the Nordic Seas to the Deep Atlantic Ocean’, Nature, 394, pp871–874.

19 For the last five years, a cutting-edge initiative in climate studies has been the search for an understanding of millennial-scale climate instabilities. These rapid, large-amplitude climate fluctuations were first identified in ice cores in Greenland and later in ocean sediment cores around the world. While other researchers have focused on the geologic record of the past 120,000 years, Professor Raymo and a handful of colleagues have undertaken the far more ambitious effort of looking at climate trends as far back as 1.5 million years ago, at the dawn of the human race. Their work has turned up some unexpected results. ‘Our results suggest that such millennial-scale climate instability may be a pervasive and long-term characteristic of Earth’s climate, rather than just a feature of the strong glacial–interglacial cycles of the past 800,000 years’, the authors wrote.

20 Committee on Abrupt Climate Change, National Research Council (2002) Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. National Academies Press, Washington, DC.

21 Dr David Kemp, Australia’s Environment Minister (Kemp, D. (2002) National Pollution Inventory, 2001–02, Press Release, Australian Government).

22 Denniss, R., Diesendorf, M. and Saddler, H. (2004) A Clean Energy Future for Australia, a report by the Clean Energy Group of Australia.

23 Department of Trade and Industry (2003) Our Energy Future: Creating a Low Carbon Economy, Energy White Paper, UK Department of Trade and Industry, Version 11.

24 Interlaboratory Working Group (1997) Scenarios of US Carbon Reductions: Potential Impacts of Energy-Efficient and Low-Carbon Technologies by 2010 and Beyond, Oak Ridge, TN and Berkeley, Oak Ridge CA; Mintzer, I., Leonard, J. and Schwartz, P. (2003) US Energy Scenarios for the 21st Century, Pew Center on Global Climate Change, Washington, DC.

25 March 2000 Australian Energy News reported the effect of minimum energy performance standards being estimated at reducing emissions at a cost of negative AU$31 per tonne of CO2.

26 Riedy, C. (2003) Subsidies that Encourage Fossil Fuel Use in Australia, Working Paper CR 2003/01, Institute for Sustainable Futures, UTS, Sydney.

27 Paton, B. (2001) ‘Efficiency Gains within Firms Under Voluntary Environmental Initiatives’, Journal of Cleaner Production, vol 9, pp167–178.

28 Pears, A. and Greene, D. (2003) Policy Options for Energy Efficiency in Australia, The Australian CRC for Renewable Energy (ACRE), January.

29 Lovins, A. and Lovins, L. H. (1997) Climate: Making Sense and Making Money, Rocky Mountain Institute, Colorado, Ch 17.

30 Northrop, M. (2003) Cutting Greenhouse Gas Emissions is Possible and Even Profitable, Institute for International and European Environmental Policy.

31 ‘Intelligent Energy – Europe’ (EIE) is the Community’s support programme for nontechnological actions in the field of energy, precisely in the field of energy efficiency and renewable energy sources. The duration of the programme is from 2003 to 2006. The programme was adopted by the European Parliament and the Council on 26 June 2003. It was published in the Official Journal of the European Union on 15 July 2003 (OJ, L 176, pp29–36) and entered into force on 4 August 2003.

32 Ambassador Harriet C. Babbitt Deputy Administrator US Agency for International Development International Conference on Accelerating Grid-Based Renewable Energy Power Generation for a Clean Environment Lewis Preston Auditorium, The World Bank, March 7, 2000.

33 This quote is from a transcript of a talk by former President Bill Clinton at the University of California, Berkeley, on 29 January 2002. Clinton spoke at Zellerbach